Human beings have rarely proven particularly apt at predicting the future – or at least certain kinds of futures.
In the days of vinyl it was hard to imagine one would ever purchase music in another format, but then came the eight-track, the cassette, the CD and the music download. It is unlikely to end there, but what other possible manner is there to access our favorite tunes?
Predictions of a certain nature, based on patterns combining past and present behaviors, are somewhat attainable.
We may see a small child who says she is going to grow up to be a doctor actually become a doctor, in so much as she expresses the desire to become a doctor, shows an interest and aptitude in anatomy and the sciences, chooses a study course to this effect, enrolls in medical school, and completes her residency. A prediction in this sense is a sequential pattern of behavior leading to a predictable outcome.
Trend spotting – predictions that make sense
Describing a pattern and assuming it will maintain course, therefore, is the most common form of prediction, and that is pretty much all we can do. See what’s been done, what’s worked in the past, and how it can continue to maintain its relevance. A bit of a buzz kill on the concept of predictions, but in no way an invalidation. People study trends for a reason, and past/present behaviors are generally an excellent indication of what’s ahead.
That being said, it’s always exciting to read that what you’re doing is the predicted activity of the future. And what we’re doing here at Treepodia is!
eMarketer’s prediction round up for 2010 led by video
Number one on the eMarketer “2010 Predictions Round-Up” of key areas of ecommerce was none other than video.
As CEO Geoff Ramsey said:
“More marketers will increasingly embrace online video advertising, supported by the twin boom of video streams and video ad networks. Further support for video ad growth will come from sites that offer a deeper catalog of professional, premium video content, which will need to introduce hybrid plans that combine subscription fees with advertising.”
Our advice? If you haven’t already done so, get with the program, get with the times, and make sure to add video to your online store in 2010.
Image credit: Frogman